Archive for the 'Real Estate Market Data' Category

Months’ Supply of Homes for Sale Rises in Coral Gables

posted on February 14th, 2011 filed under: Real Estate Market Data

The months’ supply of homes for sale has risen in the Coral Gables real estate market.  This is not because a lot of new listings have come on the market.  In fact, the number of homes for sale has continued to recede.  The problem is that demand has been slack.

Months Supply of Homes for Sale -- Coral Gables Real Estate -- Feb. 2011The key months’ supply figure has risen in every price range since last check in November 2010.  Most significant, the supply of Coral Gables homes has risen sharply across the middle of the pricing spectrum:

  • from 6.8 months to 10.7 months in the $250k to $500k range;
  • from 8.8 months to 22.3 months in the $500k to $750k range; and
  • from 10.9 months to 14.4 months in the $750k to $1.5M range.

Demand remains strong for homes under $250k, of which there are few in Coral Gables.  The luxury segment above $1.5 million remains mired in an epic stalemate, as sellers would apparently rather die of old age in their overpriced properties than reduce prices to the point at which the market would clear.

Months Supply of Homes for Sale -- Coral Gables -- Feb. 2011 (Chart, Graph)

Data are from the MLS and are based on a comparison of current active listings to January closed sales, for single-family homes only.

posted by // Comments Off on Months’ Supply of Homes for Sale Rises in Coral Gables

Q3 and Q4 Review: Closed Sales in Miami and Coral Gables Real Estate, Zip Code 33143

posted on February 5th, 2011 filed under: Real Estate Market Data

The table below reports closed sales of single-family homes in zip code 33143, encompassing parts of Miami and Coral Gables, Florida.  Recent closed sales are the principal guide to current property values in a local real estate market.

Miami and Coral Gables Real Estate -- Closed Sales -- Single-Family Homes -- Zip Code 33143 -- 3Q10 and 4Q10Because The Real Estate Fountain focuses on mid-range to luxury properties, the table excludes sales of smaller homes on smaller lots.

8325 Ponce de Leon Rd.

8325 Ponce de Leon Rd.

Data are from public records, and thus are not limited to MLS transactions.

Miami Real Estate Photos -- 4795 SW 78 St.

4795 SW 78 St.

Data are believed accurate but not warranted.

611 Tiziano St.

611 Tiziano St.

posted by // Comments Off on Q3 and Q4 Review: Closed Sales in Miami and Coral Gables Real Estate, Zip Code 33143

S&P Case-Shiller Index Ticks Down for Miami, But Less Than Last Month

posted on January 29th, 2011 filed under: Real Estate Market Data

The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index for the Miami metro area fell again for the three-month period ending November 2010.

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index -- Miami -- Nov. 2010 (NSA)Source: Standard & Poor’s

Plenty of news stories have reported on the fact that the S&P Case-Shiller Index is hitting a new low in a number of cities, including Miami.  The Miami Herald noted that the index showed prices decreased for the fourth month in a row and were at “the lowest level since the real estate market crash began three years ago.”

But the recent new lows are barely below the prior low of May 2009, and the latest month’s data from the S&P Case-Shiller Index is actually more like a flattening of prices than any sort of significant new low.

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index -- Miami -- Jan. 2009 to Nov. 2010 (NSA)Source: Standard & Poor’s

I’ve been as bearish as they come on Miami real estate prices, but folks, the crash already happened.  Perhaps another crash from these levels is possible, but it’s a whole lot less likely than it was from the levels that prevailed several years ago.  Not that we couldn’t grind lower another 10% or so.  But we’re just not in crash mode any more.  And not everyone would choose to forego the right home over a fear of losing 10%.  It’s not like several years ago, when you could rightly fear losing 50%.

posted by // Comments Off on S&P Case-Shiller Index Ticks Down for Miami, But Less Than Last Month

Bank-Owned (REO) Property Sales Receded in Coral Gables in 2010

posted on January 22nd, 2011 filed under: Financial Responsibility, Real Estate Market Data

Sales of bank-owned properties fell in Coral Gables in 2010 compared to 2009, on both an absolute and percentage basis.

REO Bank-Owned Properties -- Sales -- Coral Gables -- 2008 to 2010

posted by // Comments Off on Bank-Owned (REO) Property Sales Receded in Coral Gables in 2010

Q3 and Q4 Review: Closed Sales in Miami and Coral Gables Real Estate, Zip Code 33134

posted on January 17th, 2011 filed under: Real Estate Market Data

The table below reports closed sales of single-family homes in zip code 33134, Coral Gables, FL.  Recent closed sales are the principal guide to current property values in a local real estate market.

Coral Gables Real Estate -- Closed Sales -- Single-Family Homes -- Zip Code 33134 -- 3Q and 4Q 2010

Because The Real Estate Fountain focuses on mid-range to luxury properties, the table excludes sales of smaller homes on smaller lots.

Coral Gables Real Estate Photos -- 2508 De Soto Blvd.

2508 De Soto Blvd.

Data are from tax records, and thus are not limited to MLS transactions.

2907 Columbus Blvd.

2907 Columbus Blvd.

Data are believed accurate but not warranted.

posted by // Comments Off on Q3 and Q4 Review: Closed Sales in Miami and Coral Gables Real Estate, Zip Code 33134

Miami Home Values Hit New Lows, Says S&P Case-Shiller Index

posted on January 2nd, 2011 filed under: Real Estate Market Data

The Standards and Poor’s Case-Shiller Home Price Index for the Miami metro area (which includes Coral Gables) has declined for three straight months and hit a fresh new low for the real estate collapse.  For the three months ending October 2010, the index level has fallen below its previous low of May 2009.

From a short-term perspective, the new low looks fairly significant.

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index -- Miami -- Jan. 2009 to Oct. 2010 (NSA)Source: Standard & Poor’s

But in the big picture, the new low is just a wiggle.

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index -- Miami -- Oct. 2010 (NSA)Source: Standard & Poor’s

Time will tell whether this the start start of a new leg down for the market.

posted by // Comments Off on Miami Home Values Hit New Lows, Says S&P Case-Shiller Index

Real Estate Prices in U.S.: Great Recession v. Great Depression

posted on December 19th, 2010 filed under: Financial Responsibility, Real Estate Market Data

This is awe-inspiring.  Based on data compiled by Professor Robert Shiller of Yale University, this real estate decline has been just as deep as the one before and during the Great Depression.  But the current real estate decline has been far more rapid, accomplishing the same 30% price decline in three years that played out over eight years during the Great Depression.

Shiller U.S. Home Price Index Comparison -- Great Depression -v- Great Recession

Source:  Prof. Robert Shiller, Yale University

No wonder the U.S. banking system was insolvent.  And no wonder the Federal Reserve has taken such extreme measures.

By the way, while I was warning how severe this decline could be, I had to listen to real estate brokers and salespeople here in Miami and Coral Gables claim that I had it wrong.  One prominent broker repeatedly accused Professor Shiller, who was also very bearish, of being not only wrong but dishonest, because Shiller has an interest in a firm that makes a market in options that track real-estate prices.  It was a disgusting display of ignorance and intolerance.  Wonder how many customers that broker’s firm ushered into personal financial hell.

Be careful whose counsel you keep.

posted by // Comments Off on Real Estate Prices in U.S.: Great Recession v. Great Depression

Pending Home Sales Rose Smartly in October

posted on December 2nd, 2010 filed under: Real Estate Market Data

The Pending Home Sales Index maintained by the National Association of Realtors posted a decent gain for October 2010.  This continues a steady trend of improvement since the predictable collapse of sales immediately after the $8,000 government handout program expired.

Pending Home Sales Index (NAR) -- Chart, Graph -- Nov. 2010

Sales should do fine as long as rates remain low and in the absence of significant further job losses.

But remember, sales and prices are two different things.  And local market dislocations can produce countertrend results.  In particular, sales of luxury homes in Miami and Coral Gables remain AWOL, creating significant risk of further price declines.

posted by // Comments Off on Pending Home Sales Rose Smartly in October

Recent Sale — 2333 Granada Blvd., Coral Gables — $1.125 Million

posted on November 26th, 2010 filed under: Properties in Focus, Real Estate Market Data

The home at 2333 Granada Boulevard sold in September 2010 for $1,125,000, or about $296 per square foot.

Seems a little rich.  The house is nice, but the location is not for everyone; it’s right at the the corner of Granada and Coral Way, with traffic sitting in front of the house waiting for the light to change.  Needed updating too.

2333 Granada Blvd.

2333 Granada Blvd.

In terms of historical valuation, the price was reasonable.  The house last sold in July 1991 for $550,000.  The current purchase price represents about 3.8% compounded annual appreciation from that prior sale price.

posted by // Comments Off on Recent Sale — 2333 Granada Blvd., Coral Gables — $1.125 Million

Months’ Supply of Homes in Coral Gables — Luxury Real Estate Sellers Still in Denial

posted on November 26th, 2010 filed under: Real Estate Market Data

Most of the price ranges in the Coral Gables single-family real estate market are exhibiting the most normal conditions since the downturn began.  The exceptions are the very low end, where anything priced under $250,000 sells almost immediately, and the very high end, where sellers refuse to lower their prices and buyers refuse to pay those prices.

Months Supply of Homes for Sale -- Coral Gables Real Estate -- Nov. 2010 (Table)There is now an almost comical 160-month supply of homes priced $1.5 million and up.

Months Supply of Homes for Sale -- Coral Gables Real Estate -- Nov. 2010 (Chart)

Aside from the inaction at the high end, the Coral Gables property market improved from the more broadly weak October picture.

Data are based on comparison of current active listings to October closed sales.

posted by // Comments Off on Months’ Supply of Homes in Coral Gables — Luxury Real Estate Sellers Still in Denial